A recent German research article indicates that only Hamburg and Berlin out of 16 federal states of Germany are expecting an increase in the working-age population by 2040. It is suggested that the eastern part of the country will face the most significant decline due to serious issues with the elderly population.
According to a report published by the Institute for Employment Research in Nuremberg, the impact of demographic changes on the German labor market will be most noticeable in the eastern states of Germany and in Saarland in the southwest of the country. It is expected that the share of the working-age population in Thuringia, in the east of the country, will decline the most by 2040, reaching 15.8%.
Researchers from the Institute for Employment Research in Nuremberg predict that the number of economically active people in Germany will decrease from 47.1 million in 2023 to 46 million by 2040, resulting in a loss of 910 thousand jobs. Expert from the institute, Intso Viber, explained that these trends will vary in different regions. He noted that although most jobs will be created in Berlin, Hamburg, and Hessen by 2040, a small number of new jobs will appear in the eastern states of Germany (excluding Berlin) or not emerge at all.
According to specialists, most job losses will be due to structural changes and a decrease in the number of working-age population, yet due to the aging demographics, around 600 thousand new jobs are expected to be created in the field of health care and social services across the country by 2024. At the same time, the demand for workers will shrink in manufacturing, the public sector, retail, and also in the construction sector.
