Europe is gradually realizing that the threat posed by Russia necessitates increased spending on its armies, navies, and air forces for rearmament and modernization. The continent must be prepared for war, even if that is the only way to prevent it.
With the United States' waning commitment to European security and its demand that European nations become more self-sufficient, the spotlight inevitably falls on Germany. It is the world's third-largest economy after the US and China and the largest in Europe. With a population of 83.5 million, Germany is Europe's most populous country.
Successive German governments significantly cut defense spending after the end of the Cold War in 1990, initially focusing on reunifying the country. Over the past 35 years, the armed forces have suffered from underfunding.
NATO first informally agreed on the 2% of GDP defense spending target in 2004, officially adopted it in 2006, and reiterated it in 2014. Despite its economic might, Germany only met this target for the first time just last year.
A critical state
Decades of low spending have put the German military in a critical state. Its land forces are only 50% ready, and there are maintenance backlogs running into billions of euros. At one point in 2018, only four of the German Air Force's 128 Eurofighter Typhoon jets were combat-ready.
The total size of the army must somehow increase from the current 182,000 soldiers to 260,000 within 10 years.
Berlin recognizes the magnitude of the task. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in his pivotal "Zeitenwende" speech three days after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, announced a special 100 billion euro fund for military equipment. It soon became clear, however, that this amount was far from sufficient.
In March 2025, Scholz's successor, Friedrich Merz, convinced the outgoing parliament to amend Germany's constitution, the Basic Law, to lift the "debt brakes" that had constrained the structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP.
After defense spending was freed from the "debt brakes," Merz's center-right and center-left coalition agreed to significantly increase the defense budget from 86 billion euros in 2025 to 108.2 billion in 2026.
Germany aims to meet the revised NATO target of spending 3.5% of GDP on core defense needs and a further 1.5% on enhancing resilience and security. The government will borrow up to an additional 400 billion euros over the next five years for rearmament.
Similar plans
The German Federal Ministry of Defense has drawn up a 377 billion euro procurement plan, covering both immediate purchases and long-term contracts.
This plan shares one aspect with similar plans across Europe: governments are accepting the need for rearmament while hoping to recycle some of the vast sums involved by boosting domestic defense sectors.
Consequently, German defense manufacturers can expect windfalls, as 182 billion euros of the total are earmarked for German companies.
Rheinmetall AG and its subsidiaries are set to receive orders worth 88 billion euros, including 687 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, up to 3,500 Boxer armored personnel carriers, and 561 Sky Ranger 30 air defense systems.
Bavaria-based Diehl Defence will likely supply Iris short- and medium-range ground-to-air missiles and other ordnance worth 17.3 billion euros.
Overall, only 10% of new purchases are expected to be from the US, indicating a significant drop in Germany's reliance on America and a boost to national and European defense sectors. However, it is important to consider which systems and capabilities this percentage covers.
Increased commitment
Germany is expected to spend 2.5 billion euros on 15 additional Lockheed Martin F-35 strike jets capable of carrying nuclear bombs, thereby increasing its commitment to NATO's dual-capable aircraft.
This may have even greater significance, as the alternative to the Eurofighter—the Future Combat Air System—is a trilateral program with France and Spain, designed not just around a sixth-generation fighter jet but also around integrated unmanned systems.
Disputes exist between Germany and France over the development of the Future Combat Air System, and Spain is reconsidering its participation, potentially leading to the program's cancellation. This increases the likelihood that the German Air Force will have to rely more heavily on American F-35s than planned.
The German armed forces will also order 400 Tomahawk Block V cruise missiles from RTX and three Lockheed Martin Typhoon combat jets for 1.8 billion euros. It is also considering the purchase of four additional Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft.
Reducing reliance on America
Some advocate for reducing dependence on the US, but there is an alternative viewpoint. Despite the overall decrease in US procurement, Germany still relies on America in several key areas, such as nuclear capabilities, long-range strike, intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as missile defense. The nature of the war in Ukraine to date has highlighted the central importance of almost all of these areas.
Where does this leave transatlantic dependence? US President Donald Trump wants European countries to be more self-sufficient but expects them to invest heavily in American platforms and equipment. Meanwhile, European governments want to bolster their own defense sectors without lessening their strategic dependence on Washington, yet they have no alternative. It is a tangled web of ambitions and commitments. Germany's long-term procurement plans illustrate the challenges it faces. There is a degree of inconsistency, but for now, it is an advantage, not a flaw.
• Germany is expected to spend 2.5 billion euros on 15 additional F-35 strike jets capable of carrying nuclear bombs. • Decades of low spending have put the German military in a critical state, with its land forces only 50% ready.
